Presentation Preparation
💡 Structural Realism [^1]
- Power Shifts Lead to War
- Changes in the distribution of power leads to wars
- When a preponderant power encounter a rising great power who will over throw it
- The preponderant launches preventive wars
- The preponderant has more incentive to start the war than the rising power
- When a preponderant power encounter a rising great power who will over throw it
💡 Ex: Germany was preponderant power before both WW1 and WW2, leading to Germany launching preventive wars that led to devastation.
💡 Offensive Realism [^5]
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the best guarantee of survival is to become hegemon
- global hegemony is not practical or sustainable
- regional hegemony is possible
💡 Ex: US attained regional hegemony in Western Hemisphere in 1898, not global hegemony.
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Regional hegemon wants to stop regions it doesn’t control from having another regional hegemon
- It wants the uncontrolled regions to be divided and competed for among great powers and not with the regional hegemon
💡 the United States stopped 4 potential regional hegemons during its reign:
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Imperial Germany, Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, Soviet Union
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China is expanding its global influence
- Trying to make allies with smaller countries in its region (Asia) as well as internationally, by giving loans, donations, infrastructure projects, and business investments in foreign countries
- Belt and Road Initiative
- It’s trying to get Taiwan, Hong Kong
- Trying to make allies with smaller countries in its region (Asia) as well as internationally, by giving loans, donations, infrastructure projects, and business investments in foreign countries
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China’s Investment Trap “String of Pearls” [^6]
- China targets debt vulnerable countries in the hope they can’t pay their loan back.
- Then countries are forced to give China land, ports, geopolitical important choke points dotted all across the world
- Where China can put military bases, surveillance and maritime control over
- Similar to China’s Rush Into Africa, Explained
- Revisionist state
- Then countries are forced to give China land, ports, geopolitical important choke points dotted all across the world
- China targets debt vulnerable countries in the hope they can’t pay their loan back.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is far more than the cooperative economic strategy that China makes it out to be. China has been setting out what is called a Debt trap on financially vulnerable countries to gain geo-political benefits in return. So what China does is it lends out money in offers to build infrastructures such as ports and roads in countries that are unlikely to be able to pay back. These unreliable countries are ones that are in conflicts, authoritarian, and countries full of corruption. On top of that, China also requires that these foreign infrastructure projects that it funds must use Chinese construction companies, so its basically putting much of the money back into China’s economy rather than the host country’s economy. Therefore, these countries that China invest in many times are unable to pay back the loans and must lease away the ports, lands, or infrastructure back to China who made it for them. This was the case for Pakistan and Sri Lanka who had to lease their ports back to China for 50 years and 99 years respectively. These are signs that China is trying to establish what is called ‘the String of Pears’ to set up navel bases along important maritime trade routes along the Indian Ocean and East Asia’s waters. This can be explained in the context of the Structural Realism theory through Offensive Realism. Offensive Realism says that the anarchic system pushes a rising power to always seek more or be punished. It mentions that having overwhelming power and dominating others is the best way to secure its own survival and security. This would explain how China’s economy has been rapidly growing but it will move to seeking geopolitical control over not just its neighboring area but also the greater Asia’s region. Assuming China will continue to rise, the United States is and will be its main challenger. Offensive Realism says an existing regional hegemon, in this case the United States in the west, will not let a rising regional hegemon come into being, referring to China in the East. They would rather have the uncontrolled region of East Asia divided and competed for among the regional great powers. This can explain the various US’s initiatives to be more involved in Asia’s economy and as a way to contain China’s influence. These includes the ‘pivot to Asia’ during the Obama administration, the Trade War by Trump and maintained by the Biden administration.
- South China Sea Dispute: China’s trying to take maritime control over highly valuable and trafficked trade routes in the South China Sea
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Economically to have more influence on trade
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Building islands to put military bases: just to have military presence, but serve no real militarily advantage. And more for surveillance purpose as
- surveillance platforms, as nodes for area surveillance systems (particularly underwater arrays) and as forward operating bases for reconnaissance and strike aircraft and naval surface combatants. and offensive and defensive missile systems [^4]
- maybe during war times it could keep enemies from operating from the area
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- United States fear China is a rising hegemon, therefore it tries to suppress its power
- Economically through Trade War
- UK, US, AUS deal to contain China
References
[1]: [Structural Realism What Causes Great War Power ]]
[3]: [South China Sea Dispute]]
[4]: What China Wants in the South China Sea
[5]: Case Study Can the Rise of China Be Peaceful Using Structural Realism
[6]: China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative Council on Foreign Relations