IS204-G1-Presentation §

Class: IS204 Created Time: December 22, 2019 9:29 PM Database: Assignment Database Last Edited Time: February 6, 2022 4:27 PM Status: Done

Topic: §

Vietnam

I. Political and Governmental System

II. Foreign Relations

III. Key Domestic Events

IV. Democratization

Presentation and Assignment Guideline.pdf

Slide §

Democratization §

Vietnam has no history of democracy. Through the Eastern European communist government transform towards democracy, Vietnam’s CPV got paranoid of losing its control, rejected calls for multi-opposition parties, calling it “denying Marxism-Leninism, socialism, and the party’s leadership.

Despite its expanding economy and social freedom, the party seems absolutely determined to maintain its political monopoly.

• Various small groups and efforts to get democratic reforms to Vietnam’s political system.

History §

• Bloc 8406 is a unified coalition of political parties and political groups in Vietnam, created in 2006, called for a multiparty state

• 2006, Bloc 8406, a coalition of political group,

  early on signed by 118 people

  later on signed by thousands

  This was a big deal because signing a petition against the government is a reason for imprisonment

  In 2007, Roman Catholic priest Nguyen Van Ly: was sentenced to 8 years.

  

  Lawyer and labor activist Tran Quoc Hien was acoused of “endangering state’s security” by being part of the Bloc 8406. sentenced to 5 years in prison. released recently

  

  Former communist party official Vi Đức Hồi, joined the bloc after leaving the party. Accused of “spreading anti-government propaganda” imprisoned in 2011.

  

Dr. Nguyen Dan Que, even posting on the internet appeal for a demonstration in Vietnam caused him to be detained

there are also reports of self immolation or suicide as a public demonstration.

So from that we can see that, although protecting groups seeking democracy is small, but they are determined, and dont care about the risks. On the other side, the government is also very strict on freedom of speech, making imprisonments and arrests on protests for democracy as a threat to security.

Challenges to Democratization §

Since the 1990s, Haggard and Kaufman, Rueschemeyer, and Samuel Huntington .

What to analyze to see the probability of democratization?

1. What are the structural factors causing the political instability?

2. To what extent, the social groups create pressure on the authoritarian government?

3. To what extent, the elites may support or tolerate the democratization

4. What are the relations between different actors, and how structural factors affect them

5. Economic slowdown in 2008, will likely cause economic difficulties for several years, but will most likely not cause a crisis or political instability.

6. Societal Pressure could also

   The working class: reform policies in the 1980s for market oriented transformation increase in strikes 10 times from 1995 until 2001

   but these strikes are

   • Unorganized, disperse easily
   • No support from other sectors of society
   • For livelihood, not democratic reforms (better wage, working conditions)

   Middle Class: educated, access to internet, may play role in political change. dont know to what extent, cooperate with other groups to make reform.

   Civil Society: most are seen to provide goods and services and work along side the government, further legitimizing the government.

7. 1980s, Vietnam faced internal and external problems. Leading to division into two camps

   • The conservatives: followed the closed door policy/Marxism, interested in State Owned Enterprises
   • The Reformers: followed open door policy, encouraged global integration of economy and private sector

   The government supports the conservatives (similar ideology)

   The factions between Vietnamese elites lead to economic liberalization and limited political liberalization, but not radical political liberalization reform.

Conclusion: As long as the CPV maintain it’s economic growth, good ties with its different classes, and have a grip on its political stability, CPV will still remain in power.

(1) the current socioeconomic development, despite some signs of slowdown since 2008, are still manageable and performing positively, thus, cannot lead to a crisis; (2) the middle and working class, civil society groups are not strong and well-organized forces, thus, cannot lead democratization movement; and (3) the elites still keep grip on power and the factions inside the Party can only lead to limited political liberalization.

Can it be a problem to not democratize

Organize them in catagories

Opposition activist

Press activity: blog

Presentation Script

So to see the probability that Vietnam will become a liberalized democracy we’ll need to take a look at 3 aspects of the country.

Firstly, political stability: the main way that could cause political instability in Vietnam is an economic crisis. So even though Vietnam experienced an economic slowdown in 2008, we can see that its been doing great in expanding its economy and it will most likely not experience any economic crisis that would cause political instability in the foreseeable future.

So the first point is crossed out already

The second aspect is Societal Pressure. There are three classes to look at to find societal pressure on the government.

Firstly, the working class. In the 1980s there was a reform policy that passed causing market oriented transformation, it caused an increase in low wage jobs, and other difficulties for the people. From that time until 2001 we can see the number of strikes went up 10 times in the country. However, these strikes were not gonna cause democratization, because (1) the strikes are unorganized, and they disperse easily from small government forces. (2) they dont get much support from other sectors of society that the policy didnt affect. and (3) the strikes were for better wages and working conditions not for democratic reforms. So there is no way that the working class will cause a democratic transformation. The second class is the middle class, they are educated, have access to international media, and figured out the flaws of their country’s system, but the middle class only comprise of 20 percent of Vietnamese population, unless they convince and work with other classes in society they wont have much effect on the system. and lastly we have the Civil Society who are collections of citizen with the same interests. But in Vietnam they are called “state-led civil society” because they have less political capabilities and work with the government in providing goods and services. So from that, Societal pressure could not push Vietnam to democratization. And my last point is the Elites, they are leaders of the communist party, military, police, and others. In 1980s Vietnam faced internal and external problems. Vietnamese leaders divided into two camps, The conservatives and the Reformers. The conservatives prefered closed door policy and supported State Owned Enterprised. While the Reformers advocated open-door policy and encouraged gloabl integration of their economy and private sectors. Although the government of course supported the conservatives, the conflict had led to limited liberalization of Vietnamese economy. But even if the economy starts to liberalize it doesnt mean political system will also change.

So all in all, Vietnam doesnt seem to have much probability of it turning into a multiparty democracy state. But is democracy that important to Vietnam, as ive said the economy of the country has been growing rapidly, the majority of the society is content with what Vietnam is now, and they’ve never had a time of democracy in their history. So i think Vietnam isn’t in urgent need of democratization.

The probability of Vietnam transforming into a democratic static depends of 3 aspects, political instability, societal pressure, and elites preferences. For political instability to happen it would need an economic crisis. Vietnam experienced an economic slowdown, but it won’t lead to political change. Most of the Vietnamese population doesn’t have the goal of achieving democracy, in turn putting no pressure on the government. Lastly, the Elites are leaders in Vietnam’s society. They divided into two camps, one fighting for a more liberalized country, further liberalizing the economy but won’t lead to democracy. In conclusion, Vietnam won’t achieve democracy any time soon. However, is democracy that important to Vietnam’s future. The country’s economy is growing, the people is content with the situation, and democracy is all they know, meaning that democracy isn’t so important to the growth of the country.

1. Societal Pressure could also

   The working class: reform policies in the 1980s for market oriented transformation increase in strikes 10 times from 1995 until 2001

   but these strikes are

   • Unorganized, disperse easily
   • No support from other sectors of society
   • For livelihood, not democratic reforms (better wage, working conditions)

   Middle Class: educated, access to internet, may play role in political change. dont know to what extent, cooperate with other groups to make reform.

   Civil Society: most are seen to provide goods and services and work along side the government, further legitimizing the government.

2. 1980s, Vietnam faced internal and external problems. Leading to division into two camps

   • The conservatives: followed the closed door policy/Marxism, interested in State Owned Enterprises
   • The Reformers: followed open door policy, encouraged global integration of economy and private sector

   The government supports the conservatives (similar ideology)

   The factions between Vietnamese elites lead to economic liberalization and limited political liberalization, but not radical political liberalization reform.

Conclusion: As long as the CPV maintain it’s economic growth, good ties with its different classes, and have a grip on its political stability, CPV will still remain in power.