FPITW-C1: Problems and Issues in Foreign Policy Analysis §

Class: IS401 Created Time: October 20, 2021 6:06 PM Database: Class Notes Database Last Edited Time: November 10, 2021 12:29 AM Type: Lecture, Reading Notes

• Foreign policy (FP) is composed of the goals sought, values set, decisions made and actions taken by states, and national governments acting on their behalf” in the context of the external relations of national societies. It constitutes an attempt to design, manage and control the foreign relations of national societies.
• Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) challenges to assesment and comparison between foreign policies

1. What are the problems in FPA? §

⬇️ Asian Financial Crisis (1997). Malaysia accused international speculators of destabilizing economies for profit. US, Japan, Int’ Financial Institutions all made commitments to stabilize and contain the crisis.

1. were the goals of FP always clear, and were the values set equally acceptable to all members of the national society?
2. National governments (who are decision makers) are sometimes politically unstable
3. National governments aren’t the only actor in international stage. International speculators influenced the market. (others: international criminal cartels, terrorist organisations and migratory flows of population)
4. National governments doesn’t have that much effect on the int’ market. Non-state can undermine or constrain authority of governments.

• FP asks
  • What’s going on here?
  • Who’s doing what to whom?

2. Conventional Assumptions about FP §

the ways in which analysts have attempted to deal with FP problems/puzzles types of question in the past, and

• As states and their actions are very important in int’ relations ⇒ foreign policy plays a big role in answering its questions as well
• Links between FP, statehood, and the World of States: Realism for a long time was the only way of analyzing International Relations
  • Traditional Realism’s Assumptions
    • states were the primary actors in world politics (if not the only actors)
    • that foreign policy was pursued by governments on behalf of the state
    • that a sharp distinction existed between domestic policy making and for-ign policy making.
  • Aim of FP: pursuit of sovereingty, independence, and survival/national interests through competition for power.

Who makes FP? §

• Specialized elites with education, training, and experience
  • Role: establishing and pursuing national interests on behalf of national society
  • Decision makings and actions were confined to the scope FP elites allowed even in democracies
    • Who are those elites, how are they elected? Who are qualified?
• If there are no rules, promise of stability, or a higher power, why aren’t there constant wars in the international system?
  • The institution of statehood made unwritten rules or standard of behavior for states to follow
    • allowed authorities representing each states to practice diplomacy
    • encouraged states to cooperate either tacitly or openly to avoid the worst risks
    • the cost of international competition is high
  • If a state chooses use force or declare war they are grouped up against by other states to put the agressor down. (Defensive Realism: coalition against rising offensive state)
• FP specialist elites are the one who makes these delicate decisions with Challenges:
  • no strict int’ law: there is statehood, but there’s no enforcement
  • unpredictable consequences of actions
  • potential confusion, recrimination, escalation and ultimately war with allies
  • imperfect info/knowledge of specialists could lead state to national extinction.

Varieties Distinctios Between Foreign Policy Types §

• Traditional Realism’s thinking are uniform assumptions for all states,

1. but traditional FP use power levels as differentiation between what types of FP they use and likelyhood of success
   • FP is divided into ‘Great Powers’, ‘Middle Powers’, and ‘Small Powers’
   • During the Cold War, it created the ‘Superpowers’ states with FP shaped by entirely unique influences
   • 1960s emergence of Third World: (Decolonization?) emergence of many small nations

💡 How can power level be calculated

• Absolute Measure: exact number of economic growth and size, military capability…
• Relative sMeasure: economic/military size compared to other states

1. Policy makers’ role is to evaluate and balance between the goal and the capability to implement them
   • Not all Policy makers are perfect ⇒ efficiency and effectiveness of FP varies
   • Long Term Geopolitical situtation: affects FP makers’ decisions on basis of geopolitical (Island/Mainland) and political (Authoritarian/Democracy) context.
   • Short Term Challenges: war, financial/societal crisis, or threatening situation for state.

3. How global transformation has questioned the relevance of these assumptions? §

the ways in which assumptions about FP might need reformulating.

• Ever since the 1980s there has been radical, widespread and irreversible changes in world politics and economy that needs to be accounted for in FPA.
  • Cold War, Fall of Britain & France, Collapse of USSR
  • These changes build up from many decades to lead to change and aren’t just on/off switches

Nontraditional views of ‘world of state’ developed in two instances §

1. Sudden increase in unstable small states: states had to evaluate not only at West/Developed North but also the East/Undeveloped Southern small states for FP

   • Cold War brought stability to balance out though

   • Increase in sub-national challenges: civil war, movement to regionalism/feudalism (Brexit)

   💡 Independence of Yugoslavia

   • Balkan War

2. accelerated development of political and economic networks:

   • multinational corps such as Microsoft in political movements against perceived injustices in World Trade and Global Financial Arrangements
   • move to globalization where social, economic and political activities are interconnected
   • New Global Prosperity or New Inequalities and Exploitation? Marxism

4. Main schools of thoughts in FPA §